Confirmation bias: why we always want to be right – the confirmation bias

As the second Sunday of Advent approaches, we would like to shed some light on a topic that encourages people to critically question their own behaviour. If you have invested in systems such as Lyoness, Lyconet, myWorld, HyperVerse, GSPartner, Karatbars, Safir, Zeniq, Xera, XeraPro or XPro, the following Advent posts may encourage you to reflect on your decisions again.

Our goal is to continue to educate and shed light on the mechanisms in the mind:

People tend to hold on to their convictions, especially if they have already invested time, money or emotions in a decision. Psychologists call this phenomenon confirmation bias. It is the unconscious tendency to search for information and interpret it in such a way that it supports one’s own point of view – while ignoring or devaluing contradictory evidence.

Confirmation bias in the context of MLM fraud

Confirmation bias plays a crucial role in the area of multi-level marketing (MLM) systems, especially fraudulent models. A typical scenario:

An investor decides to invest in a seemingly lucrative project. The desire to confirm this decision as ‘right’ is strong – after all, it would be unpleasant to admit a mistake. Instead of critically questioning the risks, the investor actively seeks confirmation of their positive view. They often fall back on:

• Success stories: Reports from alleged participants who have made large profits.
• Statements from other investors: recommendations from their own circle that present the system as reputable.
• Blocking out negative news: critical reports or warnings are ignored or dismissed as ‘unfounded’.

The result: obvious warning signs are overlooked and the person remains convinced that everything is in order. This often leads to them investing even more, although the signs of fraud are becoming increasingly clear. In the end, they face significant financial losses.

Targeted manipulation through fraudulent systems

Fraudulent MLM systems deliberately exploit the confirmation bias in order to bind participants to themselves. They use manipulative strategies such as:

• Fake success stories: So-called testimonials or reports of allegedly high returns, which usually have no basis in fact.
• Propaganda in closed groups: Critical voices are systematically excluded or defamed in forums or chat groups.
• Emotionalised communication: doubts about the trustworthiness of the system are portrayed as a ‘lack of loyalty’, while blind faith in the system is encouraged.

This targeted manipulation reinforces the confirmation bias, so that those affected remain under the illusion that their decision is ‘right’. It is only when the system collapses that reality becomes apparent – but by then it is often too late.

How to recognise and avoid the confirmation bias:

To protect yourself from the confirmation bias, vigilance and self-reflection are crucial. The following steps can help:

1. Include independent sources: Consciously research critical opinions and reports.
2. Heed warning signs: Question success stories and check their credibility.
3. Reflect on your emotions: Consider whether your desire to be right influences your decisions.
4. Seek external advice: Talk to neutral experts who are not involved in the system.

Confirmation bias is human – but it can have fatal consequences if it is exploited by fraudulent systems. That is why it is all the more important to be aware of this phenomenon and to actively counteract it.